Financial events 2005

S&P futures rose to 1180 in overnight trading after the initial reports from the elections in Iraq.

8 days since last blog here. A lot has happened in terms of reports: Almost all of the important companies have reported: IBM, MSFT, Caterpillar, Semi stocks like Altera Xilinx STM Intel etc. In Sweden SCA SKF Astra... Share prices have moved wildly after reports and indices have gone down and then up again. Macro numbers have been inconclusive: in short there has been a lot to say but still nothing worth mentioning. Tonight MSFT reported and rose 2% after hours. Before that US and European markets rallied towards the end.

IBM 5c better, MOT 4c better, AMD -1c, JNPR +1c, RMBUS -2c, YHOO +2c vs exp. In all, better reports than expected but moderate reactions. IBM up less than 1%, e.g.

Earlier in the session SP500 spiked 10+ points to 1195 on low volumes, few futures but rather trading in single names - mostly reporting names.

Claims on Wednesday (=today) due to presidential inauguration day.

Stoxx opened lower (2925), despite a strong Samsung and Jap mach orders but climbed steeply to 2950 in an hour. That level held firm as PPI #s and business inventories were announced at 14.30. Right now (14:33) stoxx50 futures trade at 2953 - one point below today's highs.

US indices fell abruptly the last hour with SP futures at around 1177
During the night, Samsung was up 6% and Japan machinery orders surprised with +15-20% YoY and MoM growth rates vs -1 and +3% respectively

14.30: Claims 367 vs 340e. IRs down to 4.208 from 4,24. Futures barely budged. Later on equities edged higher but fell rapidly the last hour of trading in New York. S&P500 closed at about 1177.

US record deficit of 60bn started a sell-off in the USD from 1.30 to 1.32 against the EUR and sent markets spiralling downwards. Stoxx50 bottomed at 2917 at 16:50, coming from a level of 2952 at 14:30. SP500 started the day up on the back of a strong Intel report and reached 1188 before crashing down to 1177 where it bounced and closed the day at 1188. UPS warned of weak last-week sales but FedEx reaffirmed its numbers.

Apple beat Q1 expectations with 22c, reporting 70c profit. Shares rose 12% after hours.

Today Infineon warned.

UK retailers had their worst December in a decade, according to BRC (interest-rate increases and housing slowdown curbing consumer spending)

At 16.00 SAP preannounced license sales and total revenues in line to slightly better, margins in line with guidance (+1pp to approx 27.8%) and EPS somewhat better than consensus. The shares fell 4-5 Eur or 3.5% the first 30 minutes, in my opinion due to weaker margin than expected. Several analysts expected (much) more than 1pp margin improvement, in particular after Siebel's strong report last week.

ISI estimates Q4 SP500 operating EPS to be up 15.3%, (analysts 15.4%). Last 4Qs: 28.3%, 27.5%, 27.9%, 16.8%, beating estimates handomely every Q, but only marginally beating ISI's model estimates and actually missing ISI's 3Qe by 3pp.

STMicro lowers GM expectations. No trading a.h.
AMD p.a:s negative seq growth. Shares -8% a.h.
Genentech -4%, Alcoa -1.5%
Despite warnings and an indecisive US market, Asian markets were quite strong; up ca 1% overnight

Wholesale inventories rose 1.1% vs 0.7% expected. SP500 futures rose to 1194 from 1187 after the data was announced. Stoxx50 futures followed suit with a rise from 2972 to 2984 but not attacking yesterday's highs around 2992.

Payrolls was 157k vs 175 expected. November revised up to 137 from 112k. Markets at first indecisive, then UP. Stoxx50 from 2970 to 2990. SP500 from 1188 to 1194 ca. Dollar a bit weaker vs the Euro and IRs a few points up to 4.28.

What score did Santa keep this christmas? US retailers managed to beat sales expectations despite a weak start to December, but probably mostly due to late promotions, Revenues grew 3% vs expected 1-2%. In the UK, retail sales definitely was weak with Woolworth's, Next and Marks and Spencer producing disappointing numbers.

Markets are still holding up surprisingly well in Europe. Stoxx50 at 2976. Strong USD at 1.3223 could explain some of the strength relative US markets.

Stoxx50 continued its attempts to head higher despite weakness in the US yesterday and a few negative preannouncements from Circuit City, Xilinx etc. Even Siebel ended down 3%, despite beginning the session up 6% after a positive p.a.

This afternoon SP500 suddenly spiked upwards and reached 1195 intradaybefore ending the session att 1189. Accenture reported its November quarter after hours. Revenues were pretty strong in its fiscal Q1 but the outlook was at best modest. The shares rose to 26.00 after hours, after closing down 23c to 25.42 in hours.

Despite a strong non-mfg ISM, US markets sold off yesterday. However, Europe started on a strong note again today. A stronger dollar (carry trade reversals?) and better EU retail PMI seem to be the main reasons.

16.00: ISM 63 vs 61e/61.3 last. Inventory and export strong. No definite reaction. Employment not as weak as mfg ISM.

3 jan: marknaden börjar kraftigt uppåt men tappar snart momentum
4 jan: börserna börjar tveksamt uppåt men faller under dagen. Fallet tilltar i samband med att Fed Minutes släpps kl 20.00 CET. Anteckningarna pekar på inflationsoro hos vissa ledamöter

5 jan: Negativ start på börsdagen.
14.00:SEBL positiv p.a. sammanfaller med 8 punkters uppgång i stoxx50. (nattens positiva rapport från LSI Logic, datalagring hade dock uppenbarligen ingen positiv effekt)